Research
Articles and publications
2026-09-14
Navigating the Chaos CorridorBitcoin’s power-law trend and the ±1.5σ envelope of log residuals — a map of where price sits relative to time.
2026-08-02 · X
The Macro Path of Least ResistanceHow methodological inflation relief, euro-funded yen support, and tokenized funding rails form a lower-friction path for the Fed, Treasury, and Japan.
2026-07-17 · X
The Oil Market’s Asymmetric SetupAfter the 2026 supply shock: China can wait, the US SPR is on exchange/loan mechanics, and crack spreads stay wide while crude eases.
2026-07-15 · X
Physical Sovereignty vs. Paper EmpiresThe post-war order is reorganizing around sovereign control of molecules, land bridges, ports, and firm baseload, not paper markets.
2026-05-25 · X
ETH Tokenisation FlywheelThe Ethereum Foundation’s May 2026 CROPS pivot lines up with GENIUS, SEC capital-efficiency guidance, and institutional tokenisation rails.
2026-03-31 · X
Quantum ThreatGoogle’s 2026 qubit numbers update the threat math. A network-level attack on Bitcoin is still not reasonable; exposed-key wallets and traditional finance are the real near-term surfaces.
2026-02-20 · X
2% Capital EfficiencyFebruary 2026 SEC guidance cuts the broker-dealer haircut on qualifying payment stablecoins from 100% to 2% — a 98x capital-efficiency unlock.
2026-01-12 · X archive
Navigating the Chaos Corridor — original essayJanuary 2026 original. Quantile regression and LPPL — a different specification from the live ±1.5σ engine. Stephen Perrenod recognised and interacted with this piece.